Afro‐Palearctic migrant populations are declining in Europe, and non‐breeding conditions in Africa have been shown to be important in determining the population size of long‐distance migrants. Overwintering conditions and prenuptial migration may both influence population growth through direct effects on survival. However, studies examining the impact of environmental factors on species survival remain limited, as this requires data over several years. The Collared Pratincole
is an insectivorous and strictly migratory wader that nests in grasslands and steppes in Europe and overwinters in savannas, mainly in the Sahel. In this study, we used a 13‐year mark–recapture dataset collected at the breeding site in L’Albufera, Valencia (Spain), to estimate annual survival rates of Collared Pratincole. We found a high mean annual survival probability of 0.84 ± 0.01 se, though this varied from year to year. Wet years, as indicated by large maximum floods over the inner Niger delta, the Senegal river and delta, and the NDVI (a remotely sensed measure of vegetation based on primary production) in West Africa, positively affected the survival of the species, explaining respectively 49%, 50% and 62% of the survival temporal variation. Contrary to our prediction, unfavourable winds during prenuptial migration periods were not correlated with survival. Our study supports the hypothesis that drought conditions experienced by migratory birds in the Sahel (e.g. the Great Drought in 1969–1992) may have negatively impacted their populations.
22-08-2026


